Sundberg, K.W.
&
Reynaud, A.
(2026). Algorithmic Immersion Radicalisation (AIR): Five Eyes Research Dashboard. fiveeyesair.org.
Last updated: May 21, 2026
Version 2.9.5
Note: This interactive research dashboard is designed for comparative analysis and public education.
It is designed for serious comparative use on both laptop and smartphone, with the clearest experience still achieved on a larger screen.
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RESEARCH DASHBOARD
Algorithmic Immersion Radicalisation (AIR) – Five Eyes Research Dashboard
🇦🇺🇨🇦🇳🇿🇬🇧🇺🇸
Version 2.9.5
About Project
Last updated: May 21, 2026Version 2.9.5
The Five Eyes Algorithmic Immersion Radicalisation (AIR) Dashboard is an exploratory research dashboard for examining publicly documented cases of ideologically motivated violence, thwarted plots, and coercive ideological mobilisation across Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
Interpretive caution: the dashboard is not a prediction tool and does not claim that social media or internet use causes radicalisation. It supports careful comparison between documented AIR-relevant cases and national-level context indicators.
1. Project Overview
The dashboard combines three elements: a structured AIR case dataset, a national-level context dataset, and interactive comparison tools. The case layer remains the core research focus. The context layer helps users compare public narratives against evidence on digital exposure, crime and public safety, health, demography, housing, economic stress, institutional conditions, and social change.
The site is designed for researchers, students, public safety professionals, journalists, and informed public users who want a transparent way to examine patterns without collapsing complex events into simple causal claims.
2. What is Algorithmic Immersion Radicalisation?
Algorithmic Immersion Radicalisation (AIR) describes how engagement-driven digital platforms can intensify pathways toward ideological rigidity, coercion, or violence through a cycle of curation, immersion, reinforcement, and mobilisation.
The AIR cycle frames curation, immersion, reinforcement, and mobilisation as an iterative socio-technical process. It is descriptive and not a causal proof model.
CurationRecommender systems and platform dynamics prioritise emotionally resonant, grievance-aligned, or identity-confirming content.
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ImmersionRepeated exposure, parasocial influencers, peer validation, and belonging draw users into affectively charged environments.
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ReinforcementRepeated narratives may normalise hostility, conspiratorial thinking, out-group blame, or coercive action.
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MobilisationSome individuals or groups move from belief into harassment, intimidation, criminality, CIVM, violent extremism, or terrorism.
AIR is not a simple “rabbit-hole” theory. It is not a claim that algorithms mechanically produce terrorism. It is a socio-technical accelerant framework: it helps examine how platform architecture, identity, grievance, peer validation, influencer ecosystems, offline conditions, and political shocks may interact in ways that compress escalation timelines or intensify mobilisation. AIR is trans-ideological; the mechanism may appear in different ideological environments even where the content differs substantially.
3. Dataset Scope
The current working dashboard dataset contains publicly documented cases across the Five Eyes countries. It includes terroristic attacks, thwarted or foiled terroristic plots, and CIVM incidents. Inclusion is based on publicly available documentation, and case coding is intentionally conservative.
AIR levels reflect the degree to which public sources document online immersion or digital radicalisation indicators. They should not be read as proof that a platform caused a case.
4. CIVM Explanation
Coercive Ideological Violence and Mobilisation (CIVM) is a working analytical category used in this project to capture conduct that appears ideologically motivated and coercive, intimidating, rights-infringing, violent, or mobilisation-oriented, but may not meet legal terrorism thresholds.
CIVM is not a criminal offence and is not a legal classification. It is used for analytical comparison. Lawful protest, dissent, and democratic participation are not CIVM unless coercive, intimidating, violent, or rights-infringing conduct is present.
5. Context Data Layer
The dashboard includes national-level context indicators that support comparison across digital exposure, crime and public safety, health and wellbeing, demography, economic and housing stress, institutions, and social conditions. Context data are descriptive, not causal. Some indicators are trend-ready, while others are benchmark, sparse, country-specific, subnational, or limited-coverage indicators.
Context matters because it helps users test public narratives against evidence, distinguish AIR case patterns from broader social conditions, and avoid simplistic claims about social media, crime, extremism, or social decline.
6. What the Dashboard Can and Cannot Show
Can show
Publicly documented AIR-relevant case patterns.
Variation across Five Eyes countries and case categories.
Descriptive co-movement between online time and selected social indicators.
Differences between trend-ready, benchmark, sparse, and country-specific indicators.
Context for interpreting public claims about digital exposure, crime, and social conditions.
Cannot show
Causal proof that social media causes radicalisation.
The complete intelligence or law-enforcement case universe.
Private platform-level exposure histories.
All online harms or all extremist activity.
Fully harmonised comparisons for every sensitive indicator.
Individual-level causal pathways where public sources do not document them.
7. Reading the Graphs
Z-score (standardised): Each displayed series is standardised using its own valid values, so values show how far that series is above or below its own average. This supports pattern comparison but does not show original units.
Actual values: show the original measurement units where direct interpretation matters. Indexed comparison: shows relative change from the first valid value. Benchmark cards: are used where an indicator has one source year or limited coverage. Country-specific and subnational cards: are used where values should not be treated as Five Eyes-comparable national measures.
Missing values are not treated as zero. The dashboard blocks aggregation where the context metadata does not permit aggregation, and it avoids continuous trend lines for indicators that are sparse, benchmark-only, subnational, or not comparable.
8. Current Descriptive Case Timeline
The timeline below is computed from the current AIR case dataset and is descriptive only. It does not imply a causal relationship between digital exposure and case occurrence.
9. Research and Citation Links
Conceptual foundation: Algorithmic Immersion Radicalisation (AIR), developed by Kelly W. Sundberg, Alannah, and collaborators as a socio-technical framework for understanding ideological escalation in Five Eyes security environments. No public manuscript URL is added here unless it is hosted in the site package or otherwise authorised.
10. Limitations
The dataset is based on publicly documented cases. Public records vary by country and case type.
AIR coding depends on available evidence of online immersion or digital radicalisation.
CIVM is an analytical category, not a legal classification.
Context indicators are descriptive and vary in comparability, quality, source coverage, and reporting frequency.
Some context indicators are benchmark, sparse, partial-coverage, country-specific, or subnational.
The dashboard supports exploratory analysis and structured comparison, not causal inference.
Methodology and Limitations
Last updated: May 21, 2026Version 2.9.5
This dashboard draws on a structured Five Eyes AIR case dataset and a national-level context layer. It is designed for disciplined description, comparison, and interpretation of publicly documented cases, not prediction or causal proof. The current working dataset contains 224 publicly documented cases: 93 Terroristic Attacks, 52 Thwarted / Foiled Terroristic Plots, and 79 Coercive Ideological Violence and Mobilisation (CIVM) incidents.
Dataset Scope and Public-Source Limits
The AIR case layer uses publicly available reporting, official records, court documents, government sources, credible investigative material, and related open-source documentation where available. Public documentation varies by country, case type, and time period. Absence of evidence in public sources is not evidence that a factor was absent. The dataset does not include non-public intelligence, sealed investigations, unreported cases, or cases where the public record is insufficient for conservative coding.
The incident dataset covers Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand. It distinguishes among Terroristic Attacks, Thwarted / Foiled Terroristic Plots, and CIVM incidents. The term “Terroristic Attacks” is used descriptively because Five Eyes countries do not use identical legal definitions or recording practices.
The three-tier analytical framework distinguishes lawful protest and democratic engagement from CIVM and terrorism or violent extremism.
Current AIR Case Category Summary
Calculated from data.json at runtime so the methodology summary remains aligned with the working dataset.
CIVM Boundary and Analytical Purpose
Coercive Ideological Violence and Mobilisation (CIVM) is used here as an analytical category, not a legal classification. It helps separate lawful protest and democratic engagement from incidents where ideological mobilisation appears to involve coercion, intimidation, violence, rights-infringing conduct, or mobilisation-oriented disruption.
CIVM is not a criminal offence, is not a statutory category, and is not a recommendation for policing or prosecution classification. Lawful protest, dissent, and democratic participation are not CIVM unless coercive, intimidating, violent, rights-infringing, or mobilisation-oriented conduct is present. CIVM cases also vary substantially in severity, mechanism, and legal character.
AIR Coding Approach
Each case is assessed for the apparent strength of publicly documented evidence connecting it to Algorithmic Immersion Radicalisation. AIR levels reflect how strongly public sources document digital immersion, online radicalisation, platform exposure, online community reinforcement, or related indicators. Higher ratings require stronger public-record support; lower or nil ratings reflect weaker, absent, or indeterminate public evidence.
AIR coding does not prove that algorithmic curation caused a case. AIR is treated as a socio-technical accelerant framework, not a monocausal explanation. Offline networks, personal grievance, ideology, organisational influence, local conditions, mental health, opportunity, and broader social context may also matter. Where public sources do not document online immersion, that absence should not be read as proof that online influence was absent.
Contextual Data Layer
The dashboard also integrates the Five Eyes AIR Context Master Version 3.5.0. The current context layer contains 135 active indicators, 7,370 context rows, and 7,239 non-null values. These indicators support descriptive comparison across digital exposure, crime and public safety, health and wellbeing, demography, housing, economic stress, institutions, and social conditions.
Context indicators are not offender-level measures and cannot, on their own, explain individual cases. They vary in comparability, country coverage, year coverage, population scope, source definition, and quality. Some are trend-ready; others are benchmark, sparse, partial-coverage, country-specific, subnational, or limited-coverage indicators. A value-bearing indicator may therefore appear as a line, card, dot plot, matrix row, country-specific note, or caveated context item depending on coverage and suitability.
Display Governance and Visualisation Rules
The dashboard uses a display-governance model so that indicators are visualised according to their structure and comparability. Trend-ready indicators may appear as line charts. Benchmark or source-year indicators may appear as cards or dot plots. Country-specific or subnational indicators appear only in country-specific contexts. Indicators unsuitable for relationship analysis are not used for correlation or relationship outputs.
Five Eyes averages or aggregates are shown only where the metadata and data structure permit them. Aggregation is blocked when indicators are not comparable, when metadata prohibits aggregation, or when coverage is too limited for responsible summary. Partial coverage is caveated, and country lines may be shown where aggregate values would be inappropriate.
Online Time and Relationship Analysis
The Online Time and Social Context Explorer is exploratory. It compares daily social media use, daily internet use, AIR case patterns, and selected national context indicators in order to support descriptive comparison, not causal inference. Each displayed series is standardised using its own valid values, so values show how far that series is above or below its own average. This supports pattern comparison but does not show original units.
Actual values and Indexed comparison remain available where appropriate. Relationship outputs use only valid overlapping country-year observations and are blocked where data are insufficient, benchmark-only, country-specific, subnational, or otherwise unsuitable. Descriptive only. Not causal. Correlation, visual alignment, similarity, divergence, or co-movement does not establish causation.
Missing Values, Zero Values, and Provisional Periods
Missing values are not converted to zero. Rows marked as unavailable, scaffold, placeholder, no-data, missing, or source-gap are excluded from visualisation. Invalid zero placeholders are not plotted, while true source-backed zero values may be preserved where metadata supports them. These safeguards are intended to prevent artificial final-year drops caused by missing or provisional data.
Recent years require caution. Case records from 2025 or 2026 may be valid where documented, but context indicators may not yet have comparable source coverage. Users should read partial years, provisional source periods, and sparse final-year observations carefully.
Indicator-Specific Caveats
These caveats guide the dashboard's interpretation of indicators. They explain why some value-bearing measures appear as lines, cards, dot plots, matrix rows, or country-specific notes rather than as ordinary trend charts.
Descriptive, not causal: Co-movement, correlation, visual similarity, or divergence can support exploratory interpretation, but does not prove cause and effect.
Missing values are not zero: Blank, unavailable, scaffold, placeholder, source-gap, and no-data rows are excluded from charts rather than treated as zeros.
Benchmark and sparse indicators: One-year, source-year, benchmark, or low-coverage measures are shown as cards, dot plots, or caveated context rather than as misleading trend lines.
Country-specific and subnational indicators: Measures available for one country or a subnational place are not read as full Five Eyes comparisons.
Available-country averages: Where used, these are labelled as available-country averages and should not be read as true population-weighted Five Eyes rates unless the data support that method.
Z-score, Actual values, and Indexed comparison: Z-score supports pattern comparison across different units; Actual values show original units; Indexed comparison shows proportional change from a valid baseline.
Relationship analysis: Relationship cards are blocked where overlap is insufficient, benchmark-only, country-specific, subnational, or otherwise unsuitable.
Homelessness: Homelessness definitions, counting methods, and geographic coverage vary across countries. Some indicators are national, while others are subnational, benchmark-based, or estimate-based.
New Zealand severe housing deprivation: New Zealand severe housing deprivation indicators are country-specific estimates and should not be treated as harmonised Five Eyes homelessness measures. Auckland Known Homeless Count is subnational provider-reported context and must not be treated as national New Zealand homelessness.
Hate crime: Hate crime data are strongly affected by legal definitions, reporting practices, police recording systems, and public willingness to report.
Gendered violence: WHO violence-against-women indicators are prevalence estimates, not police-reported crime rates. Relationship-based homicide indicators depend on known perpetrator relationship and reporting completeness.
Cybercrime and online fraud: Cybercrime and online fraud reporting rates reflect reporting systems and reporting behaviour as well as underlying victimisation.
Custody and police use-of-force: Custody and police use-of-force death indicators are highly sensitive to definitions, reporting systems, and institutional scope.
Road traffic: Road traffic death rates are public-health and safety context indicators. They are not AIR indicators.
Housing stress: Some housing indicators apply only to specific subpopulations, such as low-income private tenants or low-income households, and should not be read as whole-population housing indicators.
Limits of Inference
The dashboard does not claim that social media use causes radicalisation, that online time causes violence, that AIR explains every case, or that context indicators explain individual cases. It also does not claim to capture every relevant case, fully harmonise every Five Eyes comparison, or generalise country-specific and subnational indicators across all countries.
The strongest findings supported by the dashboard are descriptive: documented case patterns, distributions, timelines, category comparisons, and carefully caveated contextual comparisons. Its purpose is to support evidence-informed interpretation, teaching, and research discussion while keeping causal claims outside what the data can responsibly support.