Five Eyes Dashboard

AIR Programme Insights

The stable, versioned evidence layer for the AIR Research Programme’s reviewed observed findings, statistical associations, informed hypotheses and methodological observations. Case-derived figures require a separate analytical specification and editorial review even though the underlying reviewed case data are publicly explorable.

Case data released; fixed findings remain separate. The reviewed v4.2.3 case records are available for exploratory analysis. This curated findings page does not yet publish a fixed case-derived figure because each such figure requires a pre-specified calculation, denominator, missingness statement, interpretation and versioned editorial review. Read the validation boundary.

Read the label first

Every released insight declares its evidential status

  • Observed finding
  • Statistical association
  • Informed hypothesis
  • Methodological or contextual observation

Key AIR findings

Fixed figures are few, stable and independently auditable

Each reviewed figure is non-editable and separate from the open laboratory. Its denominator, source coverage, missingness, comparability, evidence classification and interpretation are stated directly.

Observed finding

Daily internet and social-media time across the Five Eyes

Figure AIR-C01v1.0Reviewed 16 July 2026
Observations
60
2 indicators × 5 countries × 6 years
Missing
0
within the governed panel
Derived values
5
2023 social-media estimates
Population
Internet users aged 16–64
not the full population
Same-report-year GWI estimates via DataReportal, 2019–2024Lines stop at the 2023→2024 reporting-method boundary

Loading the governed context insight…

Marker rule: diamonds identify transparently derived 2023 social-media values. The chart does not join observations across the documented 2023→2024 reporting-method boundary.

View accessible figure data
View represented sources
What the graph shows

The public release contains a complete 2019–2024 panel of 60 country-year-indicator observations. Within each same-report-year comparison, the United States has the highest estimate for both daily internet time and daily social-media time. This is a bounded descriptive finding, not a general population ranking.

Why it matters to AIR

The panel establishes that intensive digital use is a measurable feature of the recent Five Eyes context and that estimates differ between countries and years. It supplies contextual evidence for AIR questions; it does not measure an individual pathway or an algorithmic effect.

Plausible explanations

Differences could reflect digital infrastructure, work and leisure practices, platform habits, pandemic-period behaviour and other country-specific conditions. The figure does not adjudicate between these possibilities.

Alternative explanations

Some apparent differences may arise from sampling variability, survey and reporting choices, the defined internet-user population, the five derived 2023 social-media values or the reporting-method change before 2024.

What the graph does not prove

It does not show that more time online caused radicalisation, violence, loneliness or any case outcome. It does not reveal content, recommendation exposure, platform, motive or the experience of any offender or victim.

Relevant AIR scholarship

The figure supplies one context layer for the proposed AIR Framework. Its use is governed by the ecological and non-causal rules in the AIR methodology; it is not empirical validation of AIR.

Relevant external scholarship

Hollewell and Longpré (2022) review the relationship between self-radicalisation and the internet, while Bonsaksen et al. (2023) illustrate that social-media associations can depend on motives and study design. Neither source validates national screen-time estimates as a causal proxy for AIR.

Data and methodological limitations

Values are estimates for internet users aged 16–64, not all residents. The five 2023 social-media values are derived, the 2024 values begin a documented reporting-method regime, and this visual does not display sampling uncertainty. No line is drawn across that boundary.

Questions for further research

Can the country ordering and period patterns be replicated with independent harmonised sources? How sensitive are results to age, population weighting and uncertainty? Which research designs can measure content and recommendation exposure without treating national averages as individual causes?

Methodological or contextual observation

How the 76 public Social Context indicators may be compared

Figure AIR-C02v1.0Reviewed 16 July 2026
Public indicators
76
across 11 themes
Cross-country comparison with caveats
33
subject to coverage and construct checks
Within-country only
32
no country ranking
Snapshot / context only
11
no trend or association
Counts by dashboard comparison class and theme; Social Context v1.5Counts are permissions, not quality scores

Loading the governed permissions insight…

Reading rule: each public indicator appears once. “Cross-country with caveats” means that comparison is permitted only when coverage, population, period and the visible caveat also support it; it does not mean that every pair of indicators is equivalent or that all five countries are observed.

View accessible figure data
View governing sources
View figure denominator and treatment
  • Denominator: 76 distinct indicators in the governed browser payload where permissions.public_display is true.
  • Derivation: distinct indicator IDs grouped once, without weighting, by theme_id and dashboard_class.
  • Missing theme or class: none among the 76 included indicators.
  • Exclusions: two methodology-only time indicators and the non-plottable homelessness_latest_snapshot umbrella.
  • Country and period: Five Eyes release scope; no country values are counted. Underlying observations span 2000–2026, but partial-year values and series breaks do not enter this registry count.
  • Registry snapshot: 16 July 2026.
What the graph shows

The 76 public indicators are not one interchangeable comparison pool. The current release deliberately restricts 43 of 76 indicators (56.6%) to within-country trend or snapshot/context use. Of all 76, 33 permit cross-country comparison with caveats, 32 are limited to within-country trends and 11 are restricted to snapshot or contextual display.

Why it matters to AIR

A rich dashboard can create false confidence if every available variable is treated as comparable. The permission classes make the limits of each source regime part of the analytical result rather than hiding them behind chart controls.

Plausible explanations

The distribution reflects differences in national law, survey instruments, population bases, reporting cadence, source coverage and the availability of harmonised series. Some themes therefore support broader comparison than others.

Alternative explanations

The pattern also reflects the programme’s current indicator selection and conservative governance rules. A different registry, better harmonised sources or revised metadata could change the class counts without any substantive social change.

What the graph does not prove

It does not rank themes, countries or sources by quality. It does not show that an indicator causes AIR, violence or any case outcome, and it does not turn qualified cross-country permission into full construct equivalence.

Relevant AIR scholarship

The figure operationalises the comparison boundaries in the AIR methodology and Research Laboratory. It is a map of what the current release permits, not a social-science effect estimate.

Relevant external scholarship

The OECD and European Commission handbook on composite indicators emphasises transparent conceptual, normalisation, weighting and robustness decisions. AIR therefore does not collapse these classes into a country score.

Data and methodological limitations

Counts refer to public indicator definitions rather than observations. The denominator excludes two methodology-only indicators and one non-plottable umbrella. The classes are project governance decisions for Social Context v1.5, every included indicator requires a visible caveat, and pairwise compatibility still depends on unit, population, country coverage, period, breaks and source metadata.

Questions for further research

Which restricted series can be harmonised without erasing substantive differences? How should uncertainty and source breaks be represented? Which additional metadata would permit stronger pairwise screening while preserving transparent exclusions?

Planned analyses

Case-derived figures will follow analytical and editorial review

The entries below describe intended analyses, not findings. Evidence classifications will be assigned only after an analysis is complete and reviewed.

Planned analysis

Changing volume and composition

Annual terroristic attacks, thwarted plots, CIVM incidents and calculation-included totals, with partial-year and source-coverage cautions.

Planned analysis

AIR evidence distribution

Higher, Moderate, Lower, Nil and unresolved classifications with explicit denominators, definitions and sensitivity checks.

Planned analysis

AIR over time

Period change shown against socio-technical eras without representing heuristic era boundaries as causal breakpoints.

Planned analysis

Digital immersion and AIR

The audited 2019–2024 GWI comparison panel aligned with defensible annual case measures, with no false extension across methodology breaks.

Planned analysis

Harm vectors

Selected descriptive patterns in weapon, method and target, released only after field-level publication review.

Planned figure

Socio-technical pathway

A conceptual AIR model connecting social context, curation, immersion, reinforcement, relationships, grievance, foreign influence, mobilisation and harm. It will be labelled as theory rather than a measured sequence.

Planned analysis

Five Eyes comparison

Latest defensible country values with year, unit, source and comparability status shown beside—not hidden behind—the visual.

Planned analysis

Demographic and pathway findings

Only robust, substantively important patterns in age, sex, actor count, online behaviour, platform use and pathway characteristics, with disclosure protection and explicit missingness.

Permanent figure record

AIR Programme Insights archive

Every issued figure version keeps a stable URL, supporting data, citation, explanatory panel and content manifest. A material revision creates a new version; it does not replace an earlier bundle.

Released AIR Programme Insights figure versions
FigureEvidence classificationStatus and reviewImmutable files
AIR-C01 v1.0
Daily internet and social-media time across the Five Eyes
Observed findingCurrent
Reviewed 16 July 2026; next scheduled review October 2026
SVG · CSV · citation · panel · payload · manifest
AIR-C02 v1.0
How the 76 public Social Context indicators may be compared
Methodological or contextual observationCurrent
Reviewed 16 July 2026; next scheduled review October 2026
SVG · CSV · citation · panel · payload · manifest

Archive boundary: the event ledger and hashes make changes detectable, but cPanel cannot prevent an authorised operator from replacing a file. Repository protections, release review and checksum verification remain part of the governance model.

View the public figure registerView the append-only event ledgerOpen all figure downloads

Intellectual honesty

The insight layer will test AIR, not advertise it

Findings that complicate AIR, reveal weak relationships, show country divergence or expose data limitations are as publishable as findings consistent with an AIR hypothesis.

Every released figure will state
  • what the figure directly shows and why it matters;
  • the evidence classification;
  • the denominator, coverage and missingness;
  • source, data and figure-version lineage;
  • plausible and alternative explanations;
  • relevant AIR and external scholarship;
  • limitations, what it does not prove and further research questions.
Every interpretation will distinguish
  • description from association;
  • association from causal inference;
  • AIR theory from external scholarship;
  • substantive change from reporting change;
  • revision from correction.
Quarterly editorial review

Figures are reviewed in January, April, July and October. Review may confirm that no change is needed. A material data, calculation or interpretation change receives a new figure version and dated history; retired figures remain identifiable. Era bands and event markers remain visually subordinate and never function as unqualified causal breakpoints.

Read the methodology and limitations