Long-term direction
Growth follows evidence, not a publication calendar
The roadmap records intended outputs and capabilities. It does not imply that a manuscript, book, report, partnership or doctoral project already exists. Titles and timing may change when validation, peer review, funding, ethics or collaboration require it.
- Resolve data and measurement problems before scaling analysis.
- Preserve null findings, alternative explanations and corrections.
- Version public releases, figures and interpretive changes together.
- Keep public access free and maintainable on the programme’s cPanel infrastructure.
Planned programme evolution
Milestones by year
- 2026
Launch and empirical foundation
- Dashboard launch
- Empirical AIR paper
- Practitioner paper
- First AIR Update
- 2027
First annual synthesis
- Toxic AIR
- Annual AIR Report
- Expanded datasets
- 2028
Social-context expansion
- The Social Context of Modern Violence
- International collaborations
- Doctoral research
- 2029
Practitioner maturity
- AIR: Intelligence, Policing and Prevention
- Mature AIR Research Programme
Research quality
Milestones pass through explicit gates
Semantic release gate
Structural checks, case-level consistency, source resolution, controlled vocabulary, provenance and correction history must be adequate for the intended analysis.
Reliability gate
Expert-coded fields require a frozen manual, independent coding and transparent agreement or disagreement before strong generalisation.
Inference gate
Descriptive, associational and causal claims are separated. Models must fit the sample, coverage, clustering, missingness and measurement regime.
Review gate
Peer review, editorial review, accessible figures, citations, data availability and correction procedures accompany public scholarly outputs.
Public record
Progress will be visible without manufacturing activity
Quarterly AIR Updates will record material progress, delay, correction or changed priority in January, April, July and October. The Annual AIR Report will provide the programme-level synthesis when the first report is genuinely ready. An unchanged figure or deferred output may be the responsible result of a review.